PITTSBURG, Kan. — The Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI), which is published monthly by Omaha, Nebraska-based Creighton University and tracks economic indicators for rural economies in 10 states including Kansas and Missouri, fell below neutral in October for the fifth straight month.
“The Rural Mainstreet economy is now experiencing a downturn in economic activity. Almost one in four bankers, or 23.1%, reported that the economy was already in a recession. Approximately, three of four bankers expect a recession to begin in 2023,” Creighton University’s Ernie Goss, PhD, said in a press release announcing the survey results.
Some highlights of the survey report include that farm equipment sales dropped for the second time in the past three months, economic confidence index plummeted to its lowest level since May 2020, and that bank CEOs project 2022 farm equity to be 3.4% above 2021 levels, compared to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s 4.2% estimate for the nation’s farmers. Besides Kansas and Missouri, other states included in the survey are Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming.
“The Kansas RMI for October slipped to 39.3 from 40.8 in September,” according to the report. “The state’s farmland-price index declined to 57.7 from September’s 60.6. The new-hiring index for Kansas rose slightly to 48.5 from 48.4 in September. Over the past 12 months, [U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics] data show that Kansas’ Rural Mainstreet Economy experienced a 1.0% increase in non-farm employment, while urban areas in the state gained 1.1% in non-farm employment.”
Missouri, on the other hand, was one of only two states included in the index, the other being Wyoming, that saw its Rural Mainstreet Index rating increase in October. The RMI for Illinois remained unchanged, while the other six states’ RMI decreased.
“Missouri’s October RMI climbed to 63.6 from 57.3 in September,” according to the report. “The farmland-price index fell to 68.0 from September’s 71.1. The state’s hiring gauge sank to 50.1 from 61.3 in September. Over the past 12 months, BLS data show that Missouri’s Rural Mainstreet Economy experienced a 7.3% increase in non-farm employment, while urban areas in the state gained 1.6% in non-farm employment.”
